2026 optimism for US commercial real estate
The American commercial real estate market is seeing a definitive shift toward prime, high-performance assets, with the doors finally becoming unlocked for retail expansion.
That is according to a recent report by Cushman & Wakefield, a global leader in real estate strategy and investment.
“With AI-driven growth, lower interest rates, and policy uncertainty absorbed into market expectations, capital is flowing more forcefully into the property sector,” the report says.
One of the effects of this is the further divergence of the market between the haves and the have-nots, or, as the report calls it, the emergence of a ‘K-shaped’ economy. Wealthy households, insulated by rising asset values, continue to spend hard and fuel the top end of the market, while the bottom half of the K is struggling, with missed credit card payments hitting 12%, their highest level since 2011.
Surprisingly, high-quality shopping malls have emerged as a resilient stronghold. Cushman & Wakefield reports that new leasing among the three largest US mall owners is 20% above 2019 levels.
“Retail tenants largely followed through on expansion plans for 2025 despite macro headwinds, but the brunt of tariff impacts may dent profit margins as tariffs pass through and spending becomes more fragmented,” the report says.
“Industry forecasts project holiday retail sales to moderate from 2024, rising between 1–2% after accounting for inflation. We expect a bifurcated performance by sector, with housing-related and tariff-sensitive categories experiencing weakness. This could undermine a strong demand rebound in 2026 as firms recalibrate supply chains and pricing.”
The full report can be viewed here.
