US imports to reach unprecedented highs ahead of August tariffs
Import volume across the US is expected to reach record levels this month ahead of potential tariffs in August.
As part of the Global Port Tracker report released by the NRF and Hackett Associates, the forecasts predict an all-time high driven by retailers stocking up ahead of expected tariff increases.
Reflecting on the update, the NRF president for supply chain and customs policy, Jonathan Gold said continued issues from the conflict in Iran are also contributing to the impact.
He explained: “This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties.”
Adding: “The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the US and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher. Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits.”
Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February are set to expire July 24, but a new round of tariffs regarding forced labor are expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August.
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.24 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available.
That was up 14.9% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and up 10.1% from April.
Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7% year over year. That would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEU, up 2% from the same period in 2025.
July is forecast at 2.47 million TEU, which would be up 3.3% from last year and would top the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic.
Imports are expected to drop to 2.22 million TEU in August, down 4.5% year over year. September is forecast at 1.99 million TEU, down 5.7% year over year; October also at 1.99 million TEU, down 3.8%, and November at 1.92 million TEU, down 5.2%.
The May through July numbers are expected to be the highest of the year. The peak shipping season, which historically centered around October, has moved up in recent years amid reasons ranging from port labor disputes to expected tariff increases.
Ahead of the new tariffs, Watch Insider reported on Swiss hopes of reaching an agreement with President Trump. Read the full story HERE:
