US retailers could still be affected by shipping disruption caused by war in Middle East

Many see it as a waiting game but the conflict in the Middle East has been going on for 47 days now, and despite issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, shipping import volume at major US container ports is not yet being significantly affected.

This is according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

It explained that while there is no major disruption just yet, shipping vessels are seeing a related increase in fuel costs that could eventually affect retailers across the United States. 

VP for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, Jonathan Gold, explained: “Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there.

Adding: “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets. 

“Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that puts downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.”

President Donald Trump last month announced a temporary 10% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court ruled that the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal. 

Shipping in numbers

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in February, although the Port of New York/New Jersey has not yet reported its data. 

That was down 7.5% from January and down 4.2% year over year. February is traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia.

Ports have not reported March numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year over year. April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6% year over year; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7.3%; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9%; July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%, and August at 2.18 million TEU, down 6%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. 

The year-over-year increases in May and June are largely because of the sharp drop-off in shipping imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025.

Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Elsewhere, North American retail performance for Gucci was strong despite headwinds for Kering overseas. Read more on that HERE: